A
Trader’s Guide to
Trade
Idea Generation
Objective:
a
3-day seminar providing a first course on trade idea generation via the
forecasting and analyses tools of Technical Analyses, Fundamental
Analyses, Statistical Analyses, and Arbitrage consideration, set in a
framework that ties together trade ideas to risk/return objectives and
trading discipline, including:
· to
provide a lucid explanation of methods used to come with "views"
·
to
provide a risk/return framework for "views"
·
to
examine trading rules/discipline
Audience:
· management,
treasurers,
· Risk
Management
1)
Trade
Idea Preliminaries: establishes
the foundation for trade idea generation from the perspective of
investors/clients risk/return profiles with both a reactive and proactive
approach and considers the connection to financial engineering, including
the notion of verification (the "prove it" syndrome).
2) Trading
Preliminaries:
examines rules and discipline required in positioning and managing trades
from risk/return requirements to the setting of exit conditions.
3) Technical
Analyses:
examines the tenants and methods primarily focusing on Basic Charting and
Dow Theory as well as Volume/OI
analyses, but also covering other methods
such as
Fibonacci,
Elliot Wave and Point&Figure. Case
studies include
TBonds,
FTSE, Dollar/Yen, Notes over Bonds, Euro deposits, Gold.
4) Fundamental
Analyses:
based on macro/micro-economic and financial considerations
supply/demand, term-structure theory, IRP, and company fundamentals, the
linkage to value/price is examined for credibility vs. fashion statement.
The case studies include International yield spreads, Asset allocation of
S&P vs. Treasuries, Curve shape, The corporate balance sheet and a
“good story”.
5) Statistical
Analyses:
Outright prices vs. spread and implied measures, Periodicity and
stationarity, Credibility of parameters, Advanced methods and limitations
(Pattern recognition, Periodic vs. aperiodic, ...). Case Studies include
behaviour of swap spreads, and Implied vs. historical volatility vs.
P&L.
6) Arbitrage
Analyses:
Review of the “real” meaning of arbitrage, Arbitrage as the driver for
modern valuation theory, Modern valuation theory and model arbitrage,
Searching for arbs, Arbs in terms of indices vs. cash, and Is it really
risk-free? Case Studies include an "Economic arb"
(Interest rate parity), a "Finance arb" (Put/Call parity), and a
"Model arb" (“risk-neutral” vs. delta rebalancing).
7) Market
Mode Analyses:
examination of temporary market "modes" that repeat themselves
during which particular types of structures may be in demand.
8)
Trade
Audit and Reality Impact:
Bounding Conditions, Audit (What did the market do? What did I do? What
did P&L do? What was my risk adjusted return?), as well as
Back-testing (Simple and P&L).
850
Pages of
comprehensive and extensively illustrated Handout Notes (see samples
here)
Plus copies of relevant TG2 Books/e-Books
Note:
Seminars can be tailored to your trading, risk, client, and systems needs.
Submit your needs, and/or "cut/paste" from other Seminars (see entire "standard"
list HERE)
![[Company Logo Image]](images/ARTLoggoBlocksGrad.jpg)
